Showing posts with label future technology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future technology. Show all posts

Friday, May 26, 2017

Back in 2017, I Thought Petrol Cars Might Disappear by 2025

Tiger kit car built as a personal engineering and automotive project
So I'm on a train on my way down to Cumbernauld for the weekend. I have Jamie (age 9) with me, and he is delighted to be on a train. It's diesel-electric. Onboarding, I pointed out the massive turbo on the side of the train just below the level of the platform. (I'm an engineer, I notice these things...)

The Diesel engine powers a generator to make electric energy to turn a massive induction motor that makes it move, I tell Jamie.

It's quiet, but you can just hear the engine's dull drone as we fly through the countryside. I'm guessing being diesel-electric, it is more efficient than pure diesel and also cleaner.

Travelling Through a Changing World

I was also on a bus this morning on the way to work. It was one of Aberdeen's new hydrogen-powered fleet. Diesel buses have been abandoned in favour of turning hydrogen into electricity, which again powers a motor to make the bus move. This bus is almost silent apart from some transmission noise on the move. When stopped, there is no noise at all. Great for commuters like me tapping on my iPhone and writing my blog.

Looking back now, this post captures how quickly the shift towards electric vehicles felt like it was happening in 2017.

Some of these predictions clearly didn’t happen as fast as expected, but the transition away from traditional engines still felt inevitable at the time.

Why I Still Loved Petrol Engines

White Abarth 500 performance hatchback parked outdoorsI like both these forms of transport in terms of where we are with the tech. I am, however, a massive car fan… a petrolhead at heart, and I feel a sense of gloom coming.

I like my petrol and Diesel engines. I have a few cars. All of them are older. A big 4x4 with a Diesel engine in it. I love the torque and the feeling of going anywhere it gives, and it's 500 miles or so range. I have a Lotus Seven kit car with a revvy 16v Toyota engine that makes it fly. I also have an Abarth 500, which has a little 1.4-litre turbocharged engine. It's got twin intercoolers and one of my favourite exhaust notes of any car I have owned.

I have promised the Abarth to Jamie when he is old enough to drive.

Jamie is 9, and he will not be able to drive till he is 17. That's in 8 years' time. With care and regular servicing, little Abarth should still be in good health when he is ready. It's quite easy. I have had many cars that were over 10 years old and had higher miles on them. The Abarth is a modern car, and the build quality and corrosion protection are really good.

The big problem, as I see it, is whether petrol and diesel cars will still be on the road in 2025. In only eight years' time.

The Fear That Petrol Cars Might Vanish

I read an article while having my lunch today, which was a report by Stanford University that is predicting that fossil fuel cars will vanish in less than EIGHT years time! The report suggests that as electric cars become cheaper, 'Big Oil' and the petroleum industry will collapse. People will have no choice but to invest in electric cars. Electric cars will become cheaper, more reliable and travel further.

It painted a picture of petrol and diesel cars being abandoned. No longer being economical to run. Petrol stations would close and become increasingly difficult to find. Spare parts would stop being made. Garages will no longer repair the current generation of cars. The falling oil price is predicted to fall further.

So it may be game over for the little Abarth and my 4x4. Eight years does not seem that far away. What's their fate in years to come, abandoned, in the 2025 fuel crisis?

Imagining an Electric Future

For my Lotus Seven kit car, I'm not so worried. I built it after all. As technology changed, I could even imagine replacing the petrol engine with a large electric motor and modern battery systems. Possibly both were donated by a crash-damaged modern electric car. The performance could be better than the current petrol engine.

My kit car has a simple 12-volt electric system with a separate wire harness for the engine. So, to remove the petrol engine and its ECU would be easy. It would leave big holes where the engine, gearbox and petrol tank lived. These can be replaced by the motor's ECU, batteries or fuel cell. Who knows, I may be able to put a motor per wheel and make it four-wheel drive. That would be fun.

All the other electric systems would remain unchanged. There are no antilock brakes or traction control. It's really only lights and a horn left when the engines are gone.

It should be lighter too, if I could get a range of 200 or so miles, that would be ideal. It doesn't go much further on a tank of petrol at the moment. It's not very comfortable for long distances, so the majority of driving I do is just a quick blast in evenings and weekends.

Would Classic Cars Survive?

So 2025, here's hoping Jamie gets some use out of the Abarth before we need to abandon it at the side of the road.

I also need to get my finger out as I have dreams and promises of building a hot rod project with the boys when they get older. Nothing fancy. Something rat-looking with old black faded paint, a small noisy engine, no mod cons, and flames up the side. Fingers crossed.

(edited, The Abarth may have some reprieve, found this great article on an electric rally car... Hmmm 460 bhp?)

Looking Back at Those Predictions

It’s interesting reading this back now that we’ve actually reached 2025.

Petrol and diesel cars clearly didn’t disappear overnight, but electric vehicles, hybrid systems, and alternative fuels have become far more normal than they felt in 2017.

What I still find fascinating is how quickly technology transitions can feel inevitable, even when reality turns out to be slower and messier.

Looking back, this post says as much about engineering optimism and uncertainty as it does about cars.

A lot of the same engineering mindset also appears in my reflections on building and maintaining my Tiger kit car projects.

The same fascination with understanding and rebuilding systems also connects closely to my post about why I like fixing things.

Looking back, a lot of this engineering curiosity probably started with things like LEGO Technic.

Friday, April 28, 2017

Could Aberdeen Become Scotland’s Next Tech Hub?

Old private no parking sign in Aberdeen city centre during reflections on the city's future technology industry
Looking back now, this post captured a moment when Aberdeen was starting to think seriously about what might come after oil and gas.

At the time, Scotland’s tech industry felt exciting, fast-growing, and heavily concentrated around Edinburgh, Dundee, and Glasgow.

I remember wondering whether Aberdeen could reinvent itself as part of that technology shift.

So is Aberdeen missing out on the tech industry boom?

Scotland’s Growing Tech Industry

The tech industry in Scotland is reported to be worth £5 Billion! The bulk of this is scooped up by Edinburgh, Dundee, and Glasgow... Skyscanner, FanDuel, and FreeAgent plus more in Edinburgh, the Thriving Games industry in Dundee, and a new Tech hub in Glasgow.

There is a real buzz right now around tech companies and startups.

Is Aberdeen being left behind and missing out? Aberdeen could do with a boost at this time. In 2016 Scotland employed 84,000 people in tech. And this year there is even more demand. There was huge demand for developers and digital skills at the time, especially around web and mobile technologies.

Could Aberdeen Compete?

Aberdeen city centre alleyway with street artwork during discussion about technology and startupsWhat does Aberdeen need to do to get more of a share? It doesn't need any natural resources (sorry oil!) it doesn't need to be geographically located anywhere. It doesn't need a huge investment, It doesn't even need good weather and sun.

It needs clever people, space, and ideas. We have the people, We have plenty of space (the shiny new Aberdeen International Business Park is two-thirds empty), And ideas that are free.

So what is being done in Aberdeen to get more into this tech boom.

We have the Business Gateway and its elevator program. A brilliant scheme. There is also talk of a Grey Matters program to get business folk together and identify and create new businesses. There are tech meetups including the Entrepreneurs Club.

CodeClan, Startups, and New Opportunities

I met this week with the guys from CodeClan who were up north on a jolly to Aberdeen to see if there is a demand for people wanting to learn to code. They met with potential employee partners (who need coding graduates) and potential students (skilled people let down by oil looking to retrain). Putting the two together makes so much sense.

I mentioned CivTech North, something I'm eagerly awaiting to find out more about and what the 8 tech challenges will be from the public sector.

Early Signs of Digital Transformation

Aberdeen city centre alleyway with street artwork during discussion about technology and startupsI mentioned in my blog last week I have started with Aberdeen City Council. And two weeks in and there is lots of talk of tech there. ACC seems very tech-savvy. I've been in meetings and presentations where Artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, 3D printing, and even robots have been discussed. (Count me in...)

ACC also rolled out last week its new (free) city wifi which covers Union Street and other parts of the city center. A real boost for tech buzz and I am happily uploading this free via the city center scheme as I type.

Imagining a Different Future for Aberdeen

So it would be good to see a CodeClan office opening in Aberdeen city, and possibly a CodeBase like Edinburgh. CodeBase Edinburgh is an old council building filled with tech startups. Aberdeens Code Base needs to be in the center of the city rather than the outskirts. It will give the pubs, restaurants, and shops an added boost of more people in the center, and as the startups flourish (Skyscanner-like) additional premises in the city center can be occupied boosting business further.

I think Aberdeen needs more though.

So come on Aberdeen let's bring some of the £5 billion to the northeast and give Aberdeen an additional business beyond oil and tourism. I for one am trying to be part of it.

Looking Back at Those Predictions

Reading this back now is interesting because many of the themes discussed here did gradually become reality.

Aberdeen has continued investing in digital services, technology, innovation, and diversification beyond oil and gas, although probably more slowly and unevenly than many people hoped in 2017.

What stands out most to me now is the optimism around technology, learning, and the idea that entirely new industries could emerge from periods of uncertainty.

In other news, the first website I created through Udny Solutions went live that week. It was bright, colourful, and aimed at a local playgroup, and at the time I was incredibly proud simply to have built something real for a client.

Another week and ACC's newest Web Developer is finishing his second week and is settling in well

This was all happening shortly after my own decision to retrain and change career through CodeClan.

At the same time I was also rediscovering how much I enjoyed meaningful technical work again in From Meetings Back to Meaningful Work.

Looking back, I was fascinated by how technology, digital services, and new ideas could reshape both careers and entire cities.

Nearly a decade later, I still find myself thinking about many of the same themes — civic technology, digital transformation, automation, accessibility, and how systems can genuinely improve people’s lives.

You can explore more of those reflections and projects throughout the blog here.